Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 53.743078 59.681068 66.402737 74.663971 84.670936 96.572550 112.070995
2025-01-19 43.661576 50.754365 59.419370 71.058804 86.748521 107.933931 140.250545
2025-01-26 40.895431 49.253958 60.104666 75.814424 99.136240 134.807193 199.555885
2025-02-02 39.131287 48.504587 61.301993 81.080397 113.187901 168.854985 292.014386
2025-02-09 36.774332 46.532057 60.353577 82.799463 121.936828 197.540745 400.668094
2025-02-16 34.351387 44.133571 58.377218 82.410512 126.798181 220.893286 526.360374
2025-02-23 32.382420 42.157424 56.739141 82.203356 131.824349 247.134059 710.483891
2025-03-02 30.315390 39.836843 54.287512 80.161937 132.650787 263.812439 902.803931
2025-03-09 28.612352 37.919310 52.269182 78.567567 134.001531 282.945914 1187.306981
2025-03-16 26.627794 35.434534 49.117893 74.483589 128.989885 281.069683 1330.938667
2025-03-23 26.158958 35.246606 49.701224 77.464093 140.882118 341.645827 2698.394733
2025-03-30 25.054481 33.982122 48.361354 76.518192 143.082897 370.379453 4500.844566
2025-04-06 23.769339 32.424100 46.516884 74.586941 143.030114 394.054166 8455.994238
2025-04-13 22.317629 30.530769 43.977705 70.992526 137.913904 392.839962 12782.949834
2025-04-20 22.256585 30.872380 45.360945 75.741139 157.375806 541.339818 NaN
2025-04-27 22.224499 31.251612 46.841935 80.998930 181.230750 796.446476 NaN
2025-05-04 21.727008 30.811632 46.765236 82.715256 194.639283 1041.081993 NaN
2025-05-11 21.021158 29.972158 45.860561 82.326928 200.475836 1247.425303 NaN
2025-05-18 20.389847 29.225580 45.075012 82.120103 207.112715 1533.050041 NaN
2025-05-25 19.607480 28.177601 43.631071 80.081921 205.648234 1679.017464 NaN
2025-06-01 18.924728 27.273907 42.415164 78.490045 205.671761 1889.746930 NaN
2025-06-08 18.024259 25.954114 40.310410 74.412325 193.803074 1716.667118 NaN
2025-06-15 17.895858 25.988660 40.892533 77.388281 214.692354 2928.200561 NaN